For instance, this link here
http://www.arh.noaa.gov/wmofcst.php?wmo=FXAK69PAFG&type=public talks about your area, Crumm, and gives all of the descrepancies in all the models that they are running, and therefore their basic percent surety that their forecast is accurate.
The first paragraph here states that all of the models show a low pressure system moving in, but that a couple of them disagree as to where it is going to go. They say that this discrepancy will mostly effect the wind, but you get the point.
You can see that they describe their decisions to do things in pretty great detail, and you can follow links to get really crazy about it, but I think these are the weather geeks that pretty much decide what gets forecast and what does not.
(To follow this link, scroll down on the first page I linked and click "Forecast Discussion" in the left column....)